Will self-driving cars cut insurance costs? It’s still an open question.

Self-driving cars aren’t the stuff of science fiction anymore. Driverless robotaxis now ferry passengers around five U.S. cities, and many new vehicles feature self-driving options like automatic emergency braking and lane-centering assistance.

Automated technology could bring down auto insurance costs if the advances improve safety and reduce crashes. But it will be decades before fully autonomous vehicles dominate the roads, and there are still a lot of open questions.

“How big of a safety impact they have is going to depend on how they’re designed,” Joe Young, media relations director of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), told Yahoo Finance. “An AV (autonomous vehicle) that has perfect perception capabilities may still get into crashes if it’s programmed to allow speeding and other risky driving.”

You can’t yet buy a fully autonomous car — one that can drive itself without your supervision. Driverless cars are available only for commercial use under limited conditions.

Currently, more than 1,500 robotaxis and a handful of autonomous commercial trucks are on U.S. roads, according to a July report from Goldman Sachs. The autonomous trucks operate in Texas and the Permian Basin, a section of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

Robotaxis such as Waymo drive passengers in Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. The taxis have no human driver in the front seat. You hail a ride with an app, and seemingly like magic, the car arrives and delivers you to your destination.

Vehicles you can buy still require a human driver. But many of the newest models feature advanced driver assistance systems, or ADAs, to make driving easier. For example, Ford’s BlueCruise lets you drive hands-free on certain sections of freeways, known as Hands-Free Blue Zones. The system’s adaptive cruise control automatically accelerates or brakes to control speed while its lane-centering system controls steering.

Tesla’s Autopilot works similarly, and its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system can change lanes, maneuver around other cars and objects, make turns, and choose forks to follow a navigation route. The company’s Summon technology lets you park and retrieve the car using the Tesla app while you’re outside the vehicle.

Vehicle automation is developing on a continuum. A classification system created by the Society of Automotive Engineers describes six levels. In levels 0, 1, and 2, you’re driving the vehicle even when the automated systems are helping. In levels 3, 4, and 5, you’re not driving when the automated driving features are engaged. Here’s a closer look:

• Level 0: The vehicle gives alerts, such as blind spot or lane departure warnings, and momentary assistance, such as automatic emergency braking.

• Level 1: The vehicle provides steering, braking, and acceleration to help the driver. Features include lane centering or adaptive cruise control, but not at the same time.

• Level 2: The vehicle provides lane centering and adaptive cruise control at the same time.

• Level 3: The vehicle can navigate through traffic jams under limited conditions. You must drive when the feature requests.

• Level 4: The vehicle can operate as a local driverless car under limited conditions.

• Level 5: The driverless vehicle can drive itself anywhere in all conditions.

No vehicle is at level 5 yet. Robotaxis and autonomous trucks are at level 4; they’re driverless but can operate only in certain places.

Most high-tech cars consumers can buy are at level 2 because the driver is still fully responsible, even when the advanced driver assistance systems are engaged.

Mercedes-Benz says it’s the first to achieve level 3 automation with its Drive Pilot system, which enables the car to drive itself under certain conditions.

“While active, Drive Pilot unlocks activities on the central display so the driver can play games, watch videos or take advantage of in-car entertainment features,” the company says.

The operating conditions for Drive Pilot include clear lane markings on approved freeways, moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 miles per hour, daytime lighting, clear weather, and no construction zones. The driver, meanwhile, must be visible by the camera above the driver’s display.

If autonomous driving technology reduces the frequency and severity of car accidents, insurance costs will likely go down, said Janet Ruiz, a spokesperson for the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I). Fewer severe accidents would mean fewer serious injuries and fatalities, which result in the most expensive claims.

There are some hopeful signs. Waymo says its robotaxis had 78% fewer injury-causing crashes and 79% fewer airbag deployment crashes compared to an average human driver over the same distance in the company’s operating cities.

Those figures are encouraging, say Goldman Sachs analysts. They project insurance costs for autonomous robotaxis to fall from 50 cents a mile to about 23 cents a mile by 2040. Robotaxis are covered by commercial insurance.

The safety record for automation in personal vehicles so far is mixed. Some elements like automatic emergency braking and lane departure warnings are proving effective, Young said. IIHS studies show automatic emergency braking reduces front-to-rear crashes by about 50%.

But automated systems that combine adaptive cruise control with lane-centering technology to enable hands-free driving aren’t showing safety benefits yet, according to the IIHS. “Instead, partially automated systems are raising some safety concerns since there are numerous documented instances of people over-relying on this automation,” Young said.

Last year, IIHS launched a program to rate safeguards for the systems.

“There’s no question that insurance for automobiles is going to change dramatically once self-driving cars become a reality,” Ajit Jain, an insurance executive at Berkshire Hathaway, said at the company’s annual meeting. (GEICO is a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.)

The big changes will be for liability insurance, which pays for damage and injuries the driver causes others in an accident. When cars drive themselves, the responsibility for accidents will shift toward vehicle manufacturers and technology suppliers, which will need product liability insurance to protect themselves.

But vehicle owners may still need some liability coverage. For instance, Ruiz said that if an automated vehicle malfunctions and causes an accident because it wasn’t maintained properly, some of the responsibility could fall on the vehicle’s owner.

As vehicles transition to becoming increasingly autonomous, insurers may focus more on usage-based insurance, according to the Triple-I. Usage-based coverage relies on technology that tracks driving behavior known as telematics. The insurance is priced in part on how much and how safely the car is driven. Tesla, for instance, now offers its own car insurance that uses driving data from the vehicle to calculate a “Safety Score” and help set the insurance premium.

Read more: Tesla car insurance: How to shop and save

Goldman Sachs analysts project that about 35,000 robotaxis and 25,000 autonomous commercial trucks will be on U.S. roads in 2030.

But don’t expect most ordinary drivers to own autonomous vehicles anytime soon.

Only 4% of new personal cars sold by 2035 will incorporate Level 4 automation (the level of robotaxis), according to an April 2025 World Economic Forum white paper.

“Over the next decade, personal vehicles will benefit primarily from advanced assistance features rather than autonomy…” the authors wrote. “As a result, drivers of most new cars will still be required to keep their hands on the steering wheel and their eyes on the road long after 2035.”

According to the IIHS, no matter when driverless cars are available for consumers to buy, it will be decades before most cars are autonomous.

“It takes a long time for new technologies to penetrate the vehicle fleet because people tend to hang on to vehicles for a decade or more. The average vehicle on the road in the U.S. is more than 12 years old,” Young noted.

For example, forward-collision warning systems were introduced as an option in 2000, but the Highway Loss Data Institute projected they won’t be in most cars on the road until 2049.

Car insurance covers vehicles with self-driving components, such as Tesla’s Autopilot. No fully autonomous cars are available for consumers to buy yet. Robotaxis are covered by commercial insurance.

Car manufacturers and suppliers may be held liable when fully autonomous cars crash. However, most new cars today still require the driver to be attentive even when advanced technology controls the braking or steering. Human drivers are still held liable in that case.

It will be decades before most cars are autonomous. Only 4% of new personal vehicles sold by 2035 will be driverless.